Brian, Matt S., Matt R. and Kim all attended various sessions of the Schwab IMPACT conference held in San Diego in early November. As a team we are committed to learning and continuing to grow, and we wanted to share some of what we learned with you. Here are a few quick takeaways from the conference as it relates to investments and politics:
- Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s Chief Economist, and Jeff Kleintop, Schwab’s Chief Investment Officer, believe there will be changes in long-term trends of assets classes in the 2020s. They suggested that international stocks, which have lagged U.S. stocks over the last decade, may begin to take the lead from a return standpoint.
- An investment strategist at the conference warned that as central banks have taken a greater role in shaping policy, their influence has led to disruption in the markets which is expected to increase. Investors need to be prepared for greater change which will be driven by three key forces – monetary policy, geopolitics and innovation.
- Greg Valliere, a political analyst, believes President Trump will be impeached by the House of Representatives before Christmas. The Senate trial for impeachment will be the bigger story, and getting enough Senators to vote to impeach is seen as a long shot – although, the caveat is that Mr. Valliere indicated we don’t know what else may come to light during the proceedings. Another political analyst with Schwab commented that he believes the market is currently pricing in the expectation of an impeachment from the House followed by an acquittal in the Senate.
- While all eyes remain on the Presidential race, several analysts suggested that the possibility of the Senate turning from Republican to Democrat was equally as important to monitor as the Presidential race. As long as a split remains between who controls the Executive branch, the House of Representatives, and the Senate, there are checks on what one party can enact. If one party has control of all three, however, it increases the odds that the controlling party can push major legislation through that would be impactful to the markets. A Democratic sweep to power is the scenario that would likely have the most significant impact on the markets – particularly in the area of taxes.
- Nicholas Burns, a Harvard Professor and former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, cautioned the audience of geopolitical risks as the global power dynamic shifts, but indicated that positive trends remain. These trends include: poverty alleviation around the globe, global public health advances, the rise of women, and the promise of technology.
These are just a few of the takeaways we learned from the subject matter experts at the Schwab conference. We will share more in-depth topics in future blogs in the coming months. If you have any questions about how your portfolio may be influenced, please call your CCMI advisor today!
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